Boom or Blip? Kelowna Real Estate

Kelowna Real Estate News

November 2024 Edition

 OVERVIEW


After the worst September in a decade, October bounced back STRONG with sales up 60% over last year for single family homes, and 32% higher for townhomes. This wasn’t just Kelowna, this happened across the country!

Is this the start of the market turning around, or just a blip of positive sales? I suspect it’s the latter as I’m forecasting November to be another slow month again. October may have just been a jolt from the 0.5% interest rate decline. I suspect we will likely remain in a buyers market for the winter. Come spring, who knows…
  • Sales up 20-60% over last year
  • On the fringe of a balanced market
  • Benchmark price is still stable
  • November doesn’t look positive like October was
  • Big White is starting to pick up steam for the winter season with 10% if the listings selling last month


 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES


 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
13% of listings selling 
80% of sales are under $1.3M

What a month October was! Sales were absolutely incredible at 60% over last year totalling 179 properties sold compared to 111 in October 2023. What’s also interesting is that October had 50% more sales than September’s 117 (which has never happened before). The Upper Mission was the most popular area last month, followed by Lakeview Heights.
The listing inventory has begun it’s seasonal decline dropping from 1,644 listings in September down to 1,419 in October. This is still the most inventory in over 10 years for an October, and 50% higher than our 10-year average.
The good news is that we saw 13% of the listing inventory selling compared to the measly 7% in September. While that is still a buyers market, it’s a step in the right direction.

However, November’s sales numbers aren’t looking as hot as October. I’m currently forecast 120 sales for November. While that’s better than last year’s 108, I have to go back 14 years before I can find another month less than 120.

Luxury Market ($2M+)
The luxury market did well with 10 properties selling for $2M+.
The most expensive was in Wilden at a whopping $4.370M for a 2014 built 5,600sqft home. That makes it the most expensive non-lakefront home to sell since September 2023.
 

 TOWNHOMES 


 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
14% of listings selling
80% of sales are under $850K

While not as dramatic as the boom in single family sales were, townhomes had an exceptional October with 32% more sales than the last 2 years. This caused our percentage of listings selling to jump from a measly 9% in September, to an almost balanced market of 14% in October. Unfortunately the same can’t be said for November so far, where I’m forecasting sales to be back in line with the last 2 years for this month.

While listings have started their fall decline as expected, there are still 40% more listings than we should have for this time of year, so there is plenty of inventory to go around.

According to the Home Price Index, prices are holding relatively steady compared to the previous few months and last year. That being said, there are some hungry sellers out there that might be willing to negotiate a good deal.

Two townhomes sold over $1M last month where there are currently 60 for sale.
 

 CONDOS


 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
13% of listings selling 
80% of sales are under $550K

It could be said that condos were the most stable last month as sales only increased 8% over September, and “only” 22% over 2023. This may cause condos to have a better November than other segments. Time will tell.
However, while the listing inventory SHOULD be decreasing, it ticked slightly higher to 711 listings vs the 10-year average of only 469. There is still some time before these new condo projects presold to investors come online, I will be very curious how that does.

The benchmark price has remained steady hovering around $500,000 for the last 2 years.

3 listings sold over $1M; with the most expensive being the 4,000 sqft penthouse in Centuria on the 17th floor, which sold for $2.650M


Thinking of making a MOVE? 

 
Send me an email or give me a call at 250-870-8600. I’m always happy to talk to you about whether it makes sense or not for your situation.

 
 

Click below to view detailed graphs about the market segment you’re most interested in!


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Major Cities Report

 

Victoria

Victoria Market Exceeds Expectations But Remains Balanced

A total of 654 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this October, 60.7 per cent more than the 407 properties sold in October 2023 and a 14.5 per cent increase from September 2024.

“Sales did increase notably over last year, but it’s important to include some context,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair-Elect Dirk VanderWal. “October 2023 saw the fewest sales in that month since 2008, which distorts a year-over-year comparison; in fact, last month’s sales count was almost exactly on the ten-year average for the month. With that context, although we’ve certainly seen a notable increase in sales month over month, this does signal a return to a more average market for this time of year. The number of homes available on the market has remained relatively consistent, which has also created the benefit of a more balanced market for buyers and sellers, even with the increase in sales numbers.”

There were 3,161 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of October 2024, a decrease of 6 per cent compared to the previous month of September and a 14.7 per cent increase from the 2,756 active listings for sale at the end of October 2023.
Source

 

Vancouver

Buyers Demand Surges In October

After months of tracking approximately twenty per cent below the ten-year seasonal average, Metro Vancouver home sales surged more than 30 per cent year-over-year in October. The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® reports that residential sales registered on the Multiple Listing Service® in the region totalled 2,632 in October 2024, a 31.9 per cent increase from the 1,996 sales recorded in October 2023. This was 5.5 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,784).

“Typically, reductions to mortgage rates boost demand, and the strong October sales numbers suggest buyers may finally be responding to lower borrowing costs after waiting on the sidelines for months. To some market watchers, this rebound may come as a surprise, but with four consecutive rate cuts from the Bank of Canada – and more likely to come on the horizon – it was only a matter of time until signs of renewed strength in demand showed up.” said Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,172,200. This represents a 1.9 per cent decrease over October 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to September 2024.
Source

 

Calgary

Supply Levels Improving For Higher-Priced Homes

Sales gains for homes priced above $600,000 offset declines at the lower end of the market, resulting in October sales that were similar to last year. The 2,174 sales in October increased over September and stood 24 per cent above long-term trends for the month.

“Housing demand has stayed relatively strong in our market as we move into the fourth quarter, with October sales rising over last month,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “However, activity would likely have been stronger if more supply choices existed for lower-priced homes. Supply levels in our market are improving relative to the ultra-low levels experienced last year, but much of the gains have been driven by higher-priced units for each property type. This results in conditions far more balanced in the upper end of the market versus the seller’s market conditions in the lower to mid-price ranges of each property type.” 

As of October, 4,966 units were available, a significant improvement over the near-record low of 3,205 units reported last October. While inventories are starting to reach levels more consistent with long-term trends, the inventory composition has changed as nearly half of all the residential inventory is now priced above $600,000.
Source


Edmonton

Interest Rate Impacts Adding Pressure To Edmonton Market

There were a total of 2,489 residential unit sales in the Greater Edmonton Area (GEA) real estate market during October 2024, a 10.5% increase from September 2024 and 38.5% higher than October 2023. New residential listings amounted to 2,934, down 8.7% from September 2024 and up 9.2% higher from October 2023. Overall inventory in the GEA decreased 10.1% month-over-month and sits 17.4% lower year-over-year.

“The impact of lowering interest rates is keeping us busy, with buyers taking advantage of their increased buying power,” says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton 2024 Board Chair Melanie Boles. “The number of units sold has spiked shortly after recent interest rate announcements, and while month-to-month prices are less volatile, overall, they’re still showing a marked increase from last year.”

Total residential average prices came in at $440,089, a 0.1% decrease from September 2024, but reflecting an overall increase of 11.1% compared to October 2023.
Source

 

Toronto

Sales And Average Selling Price Increases In October

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales increased strongly year-over-year in October 2024. Over the same period, new listings were up, but by a lesser annual rate. The result was tighter market conditions compared to October 2023. GTA REALTORS® reported 6,658 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in October 2024 – up by 44.4 per cent compared to 4,611 sales reported in October 2023.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for home buyers. This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 3.3 per cent year-over year in October 2024. The average selling price was up by 1.1 per cent compared to October 2023 to $1,135,215. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged up compared to September.
Source

250-870-8600
colin@kriegfamily.ca
RE/MAX Kelowna
#100 – 1553 Harvey Av.
Kelowna, BC, V1Y 6G1
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