Is Kelowna’s Market About To Turn?

Kelowna Real Estate News

December 2024 Edition

 OVERVIEW


Is the market about to take off this spring again with the interest rate changes? It’s a question I’ve had many times recently. Let’s see look at the data.

First, great news that the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight rate by another 0.50% this week. While that doesn’t impact fixed rates, those with variable rates will be extremely happy with the move.

However, interest rates aren’t the only factor to determine a market. To know the future, we look to the past.
I looked at Kelowna’s sales history of total single family home sales per year (Blue line), and measured how long they were under the average (Red line) each time the market slowed down. I then compared that to the 5 year fixed interest rates below for those times.


5 Year Boom 
1989 to 1993
Interest Rate ~9%

7 Years Slump
1994-2000
Interest Rate ~7%

6 Year Boom
2002-2007
Interest Rate ~4.5%

5 Year Slump
2008-2012
Interest Rate ~3%

9 Year Boom
2013-2021
Interest Rate ~2%

Current Slump 3 Years
2022-2024
Interest Rate ~5%

Here’s what caught my eye:
  • Our past 2 slumps had lower interest rates than the boom years, and it wasn’t enough to turn the market around 
  • We just had a longer boom than usual
  • We haven’t experienced a slump for less than 5 years as far back as my data goes.
Between this historical data, the fact that our rental vacancy rate is climbing quickly, and that we still have 50% too many listings, I think we’ll be in a slower market for the next year or two at least.
 


 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES


 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
10% of listings selling 
Most active market is under $1.3M

After a blustery and busy October sales have bumped back down to expected levels. While sales are still 25% under our 10-year average for November, 2024 was 15% stronger than last year, and similar to 2022. We’re back to the the same levels of 2011.

Listings have continued their seasonal decline, bringing us to 1,252 homes for sale. That’s still 50% over our 10-year average, and the highest November in 12 years. We need our inventory to be absorbed faster if we want to see a balanced market anytime soon.

Luxury Market ($2M+)
The luxury market did well with 7 properties selling for $2M+.
6 of those 7 sales were in the Upper & Lower Mission and Lake Country. The most expensive was in McKinley Landing on the lake for $2.7M
 

 TOWNHOMES 


 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
13% of listings selling
Most active market is under $800K

Compared to our 10 year average, sales did exceptionally well compared to the rest of the year. November saw 50 townhomes sell, an almost 50% increase over last year! For context, our 10-year average is 56 sales in November, so this was quite good!

Our inventory levels are the highest they’ve been in 10 years with 384 townhomes for sale. That puts us still one third higher than our 10-year average of 286 listings. With 20% of the inventory brand new, developers are still likely feeling the pinch as they have lots of competition.
 

 CONDOS


 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
14% of listings selling 
Most active market is under $600K

Condo sales have been on a rather strange trajectory since August. Generally speaking, condo sales peak in June and July and then trend downwards until December and January (the slowest sales months). However, after August experienced a STEEP decline after July, sales began climbing back up higher every month since then, where they should be declining.  With 98 sales in November, that puts us on par with the 10-year average of 100 sales for November – incredible!

The bad news is that we still have 50% too many listings, and I suspect that’s not changing anytime soon with some of these new buildings coming online over the coming months. One such examples is Bertram on Bernard, Mission Groups newest completion, where there are currently 32 units for sale (out of 257 in the complex) after completing earlier this month. I’m sure more will list once the inventory dwindles down as buyers have lots of options right now. Next comes Caban, then in 2026: Aqua, Movala and Water St By the Park, totaling another 1,300 units.


Thinking of making a MOVE? 

 
Send me an email or give me a call at 250-870-8600. I’m always happy to talk to you about whether it makes sense or not for your situation.

 
 

Click below to view detailed graphs about the market segment you’re most interested in!


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See more photos, video walkthrough and 360 walkthrough here

Major Cities Report

 

Victoria

A Warm Start To Winter Sales In The Victoria Real Estate Market

A total of 551 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this November, 39.8 per cent more than the 394 properties sold in November 2023 and a 15.7 per cent decrease from October 2024.

“I’ve found that buyers and sellers are feeling optimistic right now,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone. “With the steady decrease we’ve seen in interest rates and the continued balance in the market, consumers are feeling more comfortable and empowered to make the big decisions around home ownership knowing that they have a fairly stable real estate environment to navigate.”

There were 2,836 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of November 2024, a decrease of 10.3 per cent compared to the previous month of October and a 7.3 per cent increase from the 2,644 active listings for sale at the end of November 2023.
Source

 

Vancouver

Home Buyer Demand Continues To Strengthen In November

Home sales registered in the MLS® in the Metro Vancouver market rose 28 percent year-over-year in November, building on the momentum of the 30 percent year-over-year increase seen in October. The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,181 in November 2024, a 28.1 per cent increase from the 1,702 sales recorded in November 2023. This was 12.8 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,500).

“When we saw demand pick up in October, there was still a question over whether it was a blip in the data or the start of an emerging trend. While the November market isn’t quite a Cyber Monday door-crasher, buyers are continuing to take advantage of the relatively balanced market conditions while they last.” said Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 13,245, a 21.2 per cent increase compared to November 2023 (10,931). This is 26.1 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (10,502).
Source

 

Calgary

Supply On The Rise, But Not Across All Price Ranges

As we transition into winter, Calgary’s housing market is following typical seasonal trends, with activity slowing compared to the fall. However, year-over-year demand remains relatively strong. In November, increased sales in detached, semi-detached, and row homes offset a decline in apartment condominium sales. The 1,797 sales for November mirrored last year’s levels and remained 20 per cent above long-term trends for the month.

The significant shift lies in supply. Inventory levels rose to 4,352 units in November, a notable increase from the 3,000 units reported last year. Despite the recent gains, inventory levels remain below long-term trends for the month.

“Housing supply has been a challenge over the past several years due to the sudden rise in population,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Rising new home construction has bolstered supply in rental, new home and resales ownership markets. However, supply improvements vary significantly by location, price range, and property type.”
Source


Edmonton

Winter Cooling Effect Takes Hold Of Greater Edmonton Property Market

There were a total of 1,920 residential unit sales in the Greater Edmonton Area real estate market during November 2024, a 22.8% decrease from October 2024 and 18.4% higher than November 2023. New residential listings amounted to 2,114, down 27.9% from October 2024 and up 1.4% from November 2023. Overall inventory in the GEA decreased 12.1% month-over-month and 17.3% year-over-year.

“The numbers reflect that the housing market is ready for its winter break while buyers and sellers focus on the holidays,” says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton 2024 Board Chair Melanie Boles. “With early whispers of a busy spring market in 2025, now is the time for savvy property owners and investors to engage a REALTOR® and start making plans for the year ahead.”

Total residential average prices came in at $436,401, a 0.9% decrease from October 2024, but reflected an overall increase of 14.7% compared to November 2023.
Source

 

Toronto

GTA Home Sales Up Substantially In November

Greater Toronto Area home sales increased strongly on a year-over-year basis in November 2024. Many buyers benefitted from more affordable market conditions brought about by lower borrowing costs. New listings were also up compared to November 2023, but by a much lesser annual rate. This meant that market conditions tightened, resulting in overall average price growth compared to last year.

“Market conditions have tightened, particularly for single-family homes. The detached market segment experienced average annual price growth above the rate of inflation, particularly in the City of Toronto. In contrast, the condominium apartment segment continued to experience lower average selling prices compared to a year ago. Condo buyers are benefitting from a lot of choice and therefore negotiating power. This will attract renter households into homeownership as borrowing costs trend lower in the months ahead,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 1.2 per cent year-over year in November 2024 – a much lesser annual rate of decline compared to previous months. The average selling price was up by 2.6 per cent compared to November 2023 to $1,106,050. Year-over-year average price growth was greater than that for the HPI Composite benchmark because of a greater weighting of detached home sales compared to last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged slightly lower compared to October.
Source

250-870-8600
colin@kriegfamily.ca
RE/MAX Kelowna
#100 – 1553 Harvey Av.
Kelowna, BC, V1Y 6G1
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