Kelowna Real Estate News

January 2024 Stats

Watch Colin’s Youtube video explaning why January’s sales increase stats are not as they seem.

It’s no surprise that it’s been a slow winter, and January was no exception. There seems to be some pent up demand waiting for interest rates to drop 1.5% this year, but I’m not sure that will fully come to fruition. Economists seem to agree that rate reductions likely won’t begin until April, June or July. If they were to begin as early as April, the Bank of Canada would have to do a 0.25% reduction at every single meeting for the rest of the year to reach 1.5% reduction, which I think is unlikely. I suspect we will see someting closer to 0.5-1.0% reduction in interest rates this year. The question will be if starting reductions causes the market to pick up steam…which would likely be the end of further rate reductions.

 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

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Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
9% of listings selling 
80% of sales are under $1.25M

We are entrenched in a buyers market with continuous slight downward pressure on prices. While 80% of the sales are under $1.25M and our benchmark price is almost $1.0M, it’s interesting to note that our median price is only $875,000. This gives some great insight into where the market is most busy and it’s no surprise that it’s the low end. Surprisingly however, 5 of the 79 sold properties were over $2M, but it quickly fell to under $1.5M after that. Excluding lakefront, there are currently 120 homes for sale over $2M.

January’s sales numbers show an “amazing” increase of 23%, but don’t be fooled, we are comparing the 2nd slowest January (Jan 2024) to the slowest January (Jan 2023) in 15 years. It’s no surprise sales are up. Our listing inventory is also the highest it’s been in a January for 10 years.

 TOWNHOMES 

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 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
10% of listings selling
80% of sales are under $800K

While most other segments saw an increase of both sales and listings compared to this time last year, oddly, townhomes only had half of the equation. Listings climbed by 27%, but sales turned and ran the other way with 20% fewer sales compared to this time last year. While I don’t expect it to continue as a trend for townhomes, it made January the slowest of any month in 12 years. Only 2 properties sold over $1M.

 CONDOS

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 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
11% of listings selling 
80% of sales are under $600K

Condo sales impressed being the closest to their 10-year sales average for the given month since last summer when the market was busy. Listing inventory has climbed to a 10-year high, but mostly due to higher end units. While 80% of the sales are UNDER $600K, 40% of the listings are OVER $600K. 4 properties sold over $1M, with the most expensive at $1.150M, after those 4, sales prices quickly fell to under $700K.

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Major Cities Report

Victoria

A Balanced Market Means Opportunity For Buyers And Sellers In Victoria

A total of 341 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this January, 22.7 per cent more than the 278 properties sold in January 2023 and a 3.6 per cent increase from December 2023.

“Our housing market eased into the new year with a renewed sense of balance,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone. “Sales were up slightly based off last year’s very low numbers, and overall, we saw the stabilization that we observed in late 2023 continue into 2024. Mortgage rates have levelled out, inventory is slowly creeping back up, and we are no longer in that highly pressurized market of recent years which created complicated and sometimes stressful conditions for buyers and sellers.”

There were 2,140 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service at the end of January 2024, an increase of 0.4 per cent compared to the previous month of December and a 23.1 per cent increase from the 1,739 active listings for sale at the end of January 2023.
Source

Vancouver

While the Metro Vancouver market ended 2023 in balanced market territory, conditions in January began shifting back in favour of sellers as the pace of newly listed properties did not keep up with the volume of home sales.

“Our 2024 forecast is calling for a two to three per cent increase in prices by the end of the year, which is largely the result of demand, once again, butting up against too little inventory,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV director of economics and data analytics “If the January figures are indicative of what the spring market has in store, our forecast may already be off to an overly conservative start. Markets can shift quickly, however, and we’ll watch the February numbers to see if these early signs of strength continue, or whether they’re a blip in the data.”

The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,161,300. This represents a 4.2 per cent increase over January 2023 and a 0.6 per cent decrease compared to December 2023.
Source

Calgary

January Sees Strong Sales Fueled By Boost In New Listings

January sales rose to 1,650 units, a significant gain over last year’s levels and long-term trends. The growth was possible thanks to a rise in new listings totaling 2,137 units in January. The rise in new listings relative to sales did little to change the low inventory situation in the city. With 2,150 units in inventory, levels are near the January record lows set in 2006 and are nearly 49 per cent below the long-term average for the month.

“Supply challenges have been a persistent problem since last year. This month’s gain in new listings has helped provide options to potential purchasers, supporting sales growth. However, the growth in sales prevented any significant adjustments in supply, keeping conditions tight and supporting further price growth,” stated Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB^®.

The unadjusted benchmark price in January reached $572,300, a gain over last month and ten per cent higher than levels reported last January.
Source

Edmonton

Slow And Steady Numbers A Good Sign For 2024

Total residential unit sales in the Greater Edmonton Area real estate market for January 2024 came to 1,439, an increase of 17.5% from December 2023, and 46.8% higher than January 2023. New residential listings amounted to 2,195, a number 49.3% higher than in December 2023, and 2.3% lower than January 2023.

 “Edmonton real estate market is off to a good start for the year, with strong sales and prices compared to last year,” says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton 2023 Board Chair Melanie Boles. “But we’ll be watching our inventory very closely leading up to the spring market. We want enough new listings available to meet the demand that is clearly there.”

Total residential average prices came in at $398,724, a 2.5% increase from December 2023, and a 7.6% increase from January 2023.
Source

Toronto

Tighter Market Conditions In January 20204 Compared To Previous Year 

Home sales were up in January 2024 in comparison to January 2023. This annual increase came as some homebuyers started to benefit from lower borrowing costs associated with fixed rate mortgage products. New listings were also up year-over-year but by a lesser annual rate compared to sales. The resulting tighter market conditions when compared to the same period a year earlier, potentially points toward renewed price growth as we move into the spring market.

“We had a positive start to 2024. The Bank of Canada expects the rate of inflation to recede as we move through the year. This would support lower interest rates which would bolster home buyers’ confidence to move back into the market. First-time buyers currently facing high average rents would benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the move to homeownership more affordable,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

The MLS Home Price Index Composite in January 2024 was down by less than one per cent year-over-year in January. The average selling price was down by one per cent year-over-year to $1,026,703.
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