| | | | Kelowna Real Estate News October 2024 Edition | |  OVERVIEW
The market moved deeper into a buyers market in September making it the worst September in the last decade due to fewer sales and more properties to choose from. However, October has felt an uptick in sales so far, we’ll be curious to see how it shapes up. - Compared to 10-year average:
Sales are down 40-50% (lowest in 12 years)
Listings are up 50-60% (highest in 12 years) - We’re deeper into a buyers market
- Benchmark price is still stable
- Between now and February 2025 will be an excellent time to buy
- Big White is starting to pick up steam for the winter season with 10% if the listings selling last month
 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
 Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
7% of listings selling
80% of sales are under $1.250M
Sales have continued to decline, and while we are in line with September 2023, 2012 and 2010, the 117 sales in September 2024, are lower than the brutal 2008 (128 sales), and certainly lower than our 10-year average of 217 sales for September. However, October has felt like it’s started strong, and the numbers support it. I’m currently forecasting 186 sales for the month which is a BIG jump up from the measly 117 sales in September for a month that SHOULD be slower. We’ll see how it rounds out.
While we typically see listing inventory starting to decline this time of year, it has in fact inched higher with 1,644 listings available at the end of September. In our 22 years of available data, there have only been more listings in September twice; 2010 had a couple dozen more listings (1,666) and it peaked in 2008 at 1,920 available listings. By contrast, our 10-year average for September listings is 1,045, giving us almost 60% more listings than average currently.
This should sound very appealing to buyers, and it does, but it still feels tough to find good product at reasonable prices as many sellers feel they want previous years prices, and it’s causing our inventory numbers to pile up.
Combined with the very low sales numbers, we havn’t seen a market like this in 12 years.
That being said, the most attractive properties at the right price are selling.
Luxury Market ($2M+)
4 properties sold over $2M last month, with 1 over $3M (Lakefront in McKinley Landing which had been for sale for a year). As has been the case for the the year leading up to this, the luxury market is slow at the moment.
 TOWNHOMES
Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
9% of listings selling
80% of sales are under $800K
With 39 townhomes selling last month, this makes the slowest September in 12 years. For context, 2010 and 2012 saw 33 townhomes selling and 29 sold in 2008. Our 10-year average is 70 units selling in September with a peak of a whopping 122 units selling in 2020. Our listing inventory should be just starting to edge down for the winter season, but it hasn’t yet. We’re still at 1,644 units for sale compared to the 10-year average of 1,045 units. With only 9% of the listings selling, this is the slowest market in over a decade. However, the benchmark price remains steady in the $720,000 range where it’s been since the beginning of the year (except for a strange anomaly in July where it spiked to $780,000 for some odd reason).
The least expensive unit that sold was $360,000 which was 687sqft in Glenmore.
 CONDOS
Benchmark Price Trend (3 months)
12% of listings selling
80% of sales are under $550K
After the bump in sales we saw this spring and again in July, sales have settled back down to 82 units in September. This is higher than last years measly 72 sales, but otherwise the slowest in the last 10 years. For comparison, our 10-year average is 117 units selling. The listing inventory has continued its seasonal decline since the peak in June where we had 804 listings compared to September’s 699. Compared to our 10-year average of 506 units, we’re still 40% higher. I do worry about the new construction buildings flooding the market from investors who can no longer cash flow on their investment due to higher interest rates and a softer rental market. Those will come online over the next couple of years. With 12% of inventory selling, condos are outperforming the rest of the segments, but I expect that to continue to decline over time. 12% of listings selling in a month still makes this the slowest September in the last 10 years. The benchmark price has remained steady hovering around $500,000 for the last 2 years.
We did see 2 properties sell over $1M; with the most expensive in The Madison for almost $1.2M.
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“The real estate market in Victoria right now is much more stable and more predictable than it has been in recent years,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone. “We have seen a few solid months of near-balance in the market, which means it’s neither a seller’s nor a buyer’s market and positives exist for both sides of a transaction. With downward trending interest rates and stable pricing combined with more inventory on the market, our current conditions are the most comfortable for consumers to navigate that I’ve seen in a few years.”
There were 3,361 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of September 2024, an increase of 5.3 per cent compared to the previous month of August and a 24.5 per cent increase from the 2,699 active listings for sale at the end of September 2023.
Source Vancouver Buyers Remain Cautious To Begin The Fall Market Greater Vancouver REALTORS® reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,852 in September 2024, a 3.8 per cent decrease from the 1,926 sales recorded in September 2023. This was 26 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,502). “With some buyers choosing to stay on the sidelines, inventory levels have sustained the healthy gains achieved over the course of this year, providing much more selection to anyone searching for a home,” said Andrew Lis, GVR director of economics and data analytics “With all this choice available, prices have trended sideways for the past few months. The September figures, however, are now showing modest declines across all segments on a month over month basis. This downward pressure on prices is a result of sales not keeping pace with the number of newly listed properties coming to market, which has now put the overall market on the cusp of a buyers’ market. With two more policy rate decisions to go this year, and all signs pointing to further reductions, it’s not inconceivable that demand may still pick up later this fall should buyers step off the sidelines.” added Lis.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,179,700. This represents a 1.8 per cent decrease over September 2023 and a 1.4 per cent decrease compared to August 2024.
Source Calgary New Listing Growth Driven By Higher Priced Homes Rising sales in the upper price ranges were not enough to offset the pullback occurring in the lower price ranges, as sales in September were 2,003, 17 per cent below last year’s record high. Despite the decline, sales this month were still over 16 per cent higher than levels traditionally achieved in September.
“We are starting to see a rise in new listings in our market. However, most of the listing growth is occurring in the higher price ranges,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB. “While demand has stayed strong across all price ranges, the limited choice for lower-priced homes has likely prevented stronger sales in our market. While the challenges in the lower price ranges are not expected to change, improved supply combined with lower lending rates should keep demand strong throughout the fall, but without the extreme seller market conditions that contributed to the rapid price growth earlier this year.” September inventory levels pushed up to 5,064 units, nearly double the exceptionally low levels reported in the spring, but remain below the 6,000 units we typically see in September.
Source
Edmonton
Predictable Real Estate Patterns Unaffected By Interest Rate Changes There were a total of 2,256 residential unit sales in the Greater Edmonton Area (GEA) real estate market during September 2024, a 12.6% decrease from August 2024, but still 10.0% higher than September 2023. New residential listings amounted to 3,215, down 4.6% from August 2024, and up 6.4% higher from September 2023. Overall inventory in the GEA decreased 1.7% month-over-month and 12.1% year-over-year.
“As the nights get longer, so do the days on market in real estate,” says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton 2024 Board Chair Melanie Boles. “Not even cuts to interest rates can keep our market going at the hectic pace it’s been at this summer. We’re now seeing the usual slowdown, but also the continuation of elevation in home prices due to competition over lower inventory.”
Total residential average prices came in at $440,366, a 1.2% increase from August 2024, and a 11.7% increase from September 2023.
Source Toronto September Home Sales Improve Over Last Year Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales increased year-over-year in September. Buyers were starting to take advantage of more affordable market conditions brought about by interest rate cuts and lower home prices.
“The annual improvement in September home sales was more than matched by the increase in new listings over the same period. This resulted in a better-supplied market and increased negotiating power for buyers re-entering the market. The ability to negotiate on price, led to moderate year-over-year price declines, particularly in the more affordable condo apartment and townhouse segments, which are popular with first-time buyers,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 4.6 per cent year-over-year in September 2024. The average selling price, at $1,107,291 was down by a lesser one per cent compared to the September 2023 average of $1,118,215. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price edged up slightly compared to August.
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